The outcome of COP28 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, after two weeks of rigorous climate change deliberations, was mixed, with some positive developments for Africa but a lack of progress on other important concerns.
The
first agreement reached at this COP concerned the operationalization of the
Loss and Damage Fund; the text came out on the second day of the meeting, with
commitments to the fund totaling more than USD 700 million.
The
Emirates Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture Systems and Food Security came
second in line, the first such declaration at a COP. The declaration recognizes
the importance of Indigenous Peoples in food systems and empower farmers and
fishermen.
On the Global Goal on Adaptation, experts
decried a lack of clear targets and the use of vague language. The goal is also
said to be not explicitly time-bound.
With the declaration on the phaseout of fossil
fuels, Executive Secretary of UN Climate Change, Simon Stiell, acknowledged COP28 needed to signal a hard stop to humanity’s core
climate problem - fossil fuels and their planet-burning pollution.
“Whilst
we didn’t turn the page on the fossil fuel era in Dubai, this outcome is the
beginning of the end,” he said.
COP28 also made strides in tripling renewables and doubling energy efficiency,
making an initial down payment.
“Now
all governments and businesses need to turn these pledges into real-economy
outcomes, without delay,” said Stiell. “We must get on with the job of putting
the Paris Agreement to full work. In early 2025, countries must deliver new
Nationally Determined Contributions. Every single commitment – on finance,
adaptation, and mitigation – must bring us in line with a 1.5-degree world”.
Least Developed
Countries Group reacts
Reacting to the outcomes of COP28, Madeleine
Diouf Sarr, Chair of the Least Developed Countries Group, said the Dubai
decision is historic in including the first reference to fossil fuels, but the
group is concerned about the loopholes that it leaves open, which could limit
true emissions reductions and ambition.
“This outcome is not perfect, we expected more.
It reflects the very lowest possible ambition that we could accept rather than
what we know, according to the best available science, is necessary to urgently
address the climate crisis,” he stated.
According to Madeleine, limiting warming to 1.5C
is a matter of survival, and international cooperation remains key to ensuring
it.
“Alignment with 1.5C not only requires countries
to urgently reduce domestic emissions but also the delivery of significant
climate finance so that we can continue our leadership in going well beyond our
fair share of the global effort when it comes to reducing emissions,” he noted.
On the Global Goal on Adaptation, Ms
Sarr said “the adoption of the GGA Framework at COP28 is a historic
achievement, however, our work is far from over. We must now focus on the
critical next steps, which include the development of indicators, to ensure the
framework's progress is accurately tracked and measured."
Transition away from fossils marred by lack
of finance
Climate Action Network together with civil
society across the world, used their collective power in centering the end of
fossil fuels through a fair, fast and funded just transition at COP28.
But they expect the polluting countries and
companies to deliver the funding to achieve a just and equitable transition
away from fossil fuels.
“The COP outcome opened the road for a fossil
fuel free world, but this road is full of potholes, dangerous distractions and
if allowed, could lead to a dead end,” Tasneem Essop, Executive Director, CAN
International. “We are determined to fight for securing international support
from the rich nations for the developing world as a key enabler for more
ambitious commitments and a just and equitable transition to a fossil free
future.”
Mohamed Adow, Director of Power Shift Africa also noted that “for the first
time in three decades of climate negotiations, the words fossil fuels have ever
made it into a COP outcome. We are finally naming the elephant in the
room. The genie is never going back into the bottle and future COPs will only
turn the screws even more on dirty energy”.
“Some people may have had their expectations
for this meeting raised too high, but this result would have been unheard off
two years ago, especially at a COP meeting in a petrostate. It shows that even
oil and gas producers can see we’re heading for a fossil free world,” he added.
Position of African Group of Negotiators
Africa’s
cumulative historical emissions are a paltry 3 percent of the global total;
current emissions from the energy and industrialized sector are also an
inconsequential 3 percent for a continent of over 50 countries and 1.5 billion
people.
The
African Group of Negotiators on Climate Change (AGN) wanted the recognition of
the full right for Africa to exploit its natural resources sustainably and in
line with sustainable development and poverty eradication needs, consistent
with Agenda 2063.
“It
must be understood that Africa will need to exploit its natural resources and
renewable energy endowments to achieve universal access to energy as per SDG 9,”
said a statement from AGN Chair, Eng. Collins Nzovu.
He
noted that Africa is in support of limiting warming to 1.5°C, however this
should be based on differentiated pathways where African countries close the
supply gap, rather than developed countries continuing to issue exploration
licenses to avoid stranded assets as the African supply will be towards the
global demand.
“The
economic impact of stranded assets could amount to trillions of dollars. Fossil
fuel assets are most vulnerable over the coming decade; oil and gas assets are
more vulnerable toward mid-century,” said the statement.
However,
Landry Ninteretse, Regional Director of 350Africa.org,
frowned on the statement by the AGN.
He posited that “reliance on fossil fuels not only
sets us on a perilous path to further destruction but also won’t bring a
tangible benefit in people’s lives and livelihoods. Fairness and
differentiation are key to this energy transition.
“Our continent is abundant in renewable energy
resources that, if developed, can address the continent’s dual energy and
climate crises. Neo-colonialist and extractivist approaches that have long
characterized the fossil fuel exploitation must stop. Rather than fight to
explore polluting fossils, focus should be on calling for developed nations to
deliver adequate and favorable financing towards a fast and fair transition
away from fossils”.
Stance of African CSOs
and Non-State Actors
The
African civil society and the Non-State Actors Committee (NSA) observed the
negotiations had been frustrating, particularly in securing progressive
decisions on the Global Goal on Adaptation and its means of implementation.
“Implementing
strong adaptation measures remains at the heart of addressing historical and
current climate injustice and this must be complemented with sufficient
means of implementation, to be precise climate finance. Africa demands
immediate and substantial action to address the lack of sufficient adaptation
measures for the continent, recognizing historical injustices,” said the groups
in the statement.
Al Gore, former US Vice
President and Founder of Climate Reality Project, emphasized that the world
desperately needs to phase out fossil fuels as quickly as possible.
“But this obsequious draft
reads as if OPEC dictated it word for word. It is even worse than many had
feared,” he stated. “In order to prevent COP28 from being the most embarrassing
and dismal failure in 28 years of international climate negotiations, the final
text must include clear language on phasing out fossil fuels. Anything else is
a massive step backwards from where the world needs to be to truly address the
climate crisis and make sure the 1.5°C goal doesn’t die in Dubai”.
The UN Climate Change says the
negotiations on the ‘enhanced transparency framework’ at COP28 laid the ground
for a new era of implementing the Paris Agreement.
Azerbaijan
will host COP29, where governments must establish a new climate finance goal,
reflecting the scale and urgency of the climate challenge.
At
COP30 in Brazil, they must come prepared with new nationally determined
contributions that are economy-wide, cover all greenhouse gases and are fully
aligned with the 1.5°C temperature limit.
By Kofi Adu Domfeh