Worsening Worldwide Land Degradation Now 'Critical,' Intensifying Climate Change

Worsening land degradation caused by human activities is undermining the well-being of two fifths of humanity, driving species extinctions and intensifying climate change.

It is also a major contributor to mass human migration and increased conflict, according to the world's first comprehensive evidence-based assessment of land degradation and restoration. 

The dangers of land degradation, which cost the equivalent of about 10% of the world's annual gross product in 2010 through the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services, are detailed for policymakers, together with a catalogue of corrective options, in the three-year assessment report by more than 100 leading experts from 45 countries.

Produced by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the report was approved at the 6^th session of the IPBES Plenary in Medellín, Colombia. IPBES has 129 State Members. 

Providing the best-available evidence for policymakers to make better-informed decisions, the report draws on more than 3,000 scientific, Government, indigenous and local knowledge sources. Extensively peer-reviewed, it was improved by more than 7,300 comments, received from over 200 external reviewers. 

Serious Danger to Human Well-being

Rapid expansion and unsustainable management of croplands and grazing lands is the most extensive global direct driver of land degradation, causing significant loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services - food security, water purification, the provision of energy and other contributions of nature essential to people. This has reached 'critical' levels in many parts of the world, the report says.

"With negative impacts on the well-being of at least 3.2 billion people, the degradation of the Earth's land surface through human activities is pushing the planet towards a sixth mass species extinction," said Prof. Robert Scholes (South Africa), co-chair of the assessment with Dr. Luca Montanarella (Italy). "Avoiding, reducing and reversing this problem, and restoring degraded land, is an urgent priority to protect the biodiversity and ecosystem services vital to all life on Earth and to ensure human well-being."

"Wetlands have been particularly hard hit," said Dr. Montanarella. "We have seen losses of 87% in wetland areas since the start of the modern era - with 54% lost since 1900." 

According to the authors, land degradation manifests in many ways: land abandonment, declining populations of wild species, loss of soil and soil health, rangelands and fresh water, as well as deforestation. 

Underlying drivers of land degradation, says the report, are the high-consumption lifestyles in the most developed economies, combined with rising consumption in developing and emerging economies. High and rising per capita consumption, amplified by continued population growth in many parts of the world, can drive unsustainable levels of agricultural expansion, natural resource and mineral extraction, and urbanization - typically leading to greater levels of land degradation. 

By 2014, more than 1.5 billion hectares of natural ecosystems had been converted to croplands. Less than 25% of the Earth's land surface has escaped substantial impacts of human activity - and by 2050, the IPBES experts estimate this will have fallen to less than 10%. 

Crop and grazing lands now cover more than one third of the Earth´s land surface, with recent clearance of native habitats, including forests, grasslands and wetlands, being concentrated in some of the most species-rich ecosystems on the planet.

The report says increasing demand for food and biofuels will likely lead to continued increase in nutrient and chemical inputs and a shift towards industrialized livestock production systems, with pesticide and fertilizer use expected to double by 2050. 

Avoidance of further agricultural expansion into native habitats can be achieved through yield increases on the existing farmlands, shifts towards less land degrading diets, such as those with more plant-based foods and less animal protein from unsustainable sources, and reductions in food loss and waste.

Strong Links to Climate Change

"Through this report, the global community of experts has delivered a frank and urgent warning, with clear options to address dire environmental damage," said Sir Robert Watson, Chair of IPBES.  

"Land degradation, biodiversity loss and climate change are three different faces of the same central challenge: the increasingly dangerous impact of our choices on the health of our natural environment. We cannot afford to tackle any one of these three threats in isolation - they each deserve the highest policy priority and must be addressed together."

The IPBES report finds that land degradation is a major contributor to climate change, with deforestation alone contributing about 10% of all human-induced greenhouse gas emissions. Another major driver of the changing climate has been the release of carbon previously stored in the soil, with land degradation between 2000 and 2009 responsible for annual global emissions of up to 4.4 billion tonnes of CO2. 

Given the importance of soil's carbon absorption and storage functions, the avoidance, reduction and reversal of land degradation could provide more than a third of the most cost-effective greenhouse gas mitigation activities needed by 2030 to keep global warming under the 2°C threshold targeted in the Paris Agreement on climate change, increase food and water security, and contribute to the avoidance of conflict and migration.  

Projections to 2050

"In just over three decades from now, an estimated 4 billion people will live in drylands," said Prof. Scholes. "By then it is likely that land degradation, together with the closely related problems of climate change, will have forced 50-700 million people to migrate. Decreasing land productivity also makes societies more vulnerable to social instability - particularly in dryland areas, where years with extremely low rainfall have been associated with an increase of up to 45% in violent conflict."

Dr. Montanarella added: "By 2050, the combination of land degradation and climate change is predicted to reduce global crop yields by an average of 10%, and by up to 50% in some regions. In the future, most degradation will occur in Central and South America, sub-Saharan Africa and Asia - the areas with the most land still remaining that is suitable for agriculture." 

The report also underlines the challenges that land degradation poses, and the importance of restoration, for key international development objectives, including the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and the Aichi Biodiversity Targets. "The greatest value of the assessment is the evidence that it provides to decision makers in Government, business, academia and even at the level of local communities," said Dr. Anne Larigauderie, Executive Secretary of IPBES. "With better information, backed by the consensus of the world's leading experts, we can all make better choices for more effective action."

Options for Land Restoration

The report notes that successful examples of land restoration are found in every ecosystem, and that many well-tested practices and techniques, both traditional and modern, can avoid or reverse degradation. 

In croplands, for instance, some of these include reducing soil loss and improving soil health, the use of salt tolerant crops, conservation agriculture and integrated crop, livestock and forestry systems. 

In rangelands with traditional grazing, maintenance of appropriate fire regimes, and the reinstatement or development of local livestock management practices and institutions have proven effective. 

Successful responses in wetlands have included control over pollution sources, managing the wetlands as part of the landscape, and reflooding wetlands damaged by draining. 

In urban areas, urban spatial planning, replanting with native species, the development of 'green infrastructure' such as parks and riverways, remediation of contaminated and sealed soils (e.g. under asphalt), wastewater treatment and river channel restoration are identified as key options for action.       

Opportunities to accelerate action identified in the report include: 

• Improving monitoring, verification systems and baseline data;

• Coordinating policy between different ministries to simultaneously encourage more sustainable production and consumption practices of land-based commodities;

• Eliminating 'perverse incentives' that promote land degradation and promoting positive incentives that reward sustainable land management; and

• Integrating the agricultural, forestry, energy, water, infrastructure and service agendas.

Making the point that existing multilateral environmental agreements provide a good platform for action to avoid, reduce and reverse land degradation and promote restoration, the authors observe, however, that greater commitment and more effective cooperation is needed at the national and local levels to achieve the goals of zero net land degradation, no loss of biodiversity and improved human well-being.

Knowledge Gaps

Among the areas identified by the report as opportunities for further research are:

• The consequences of land degradation on freshwater and coastal ecosystems, physical and mental health and spiritual well-being, and infectious disease prevalence and transmission;

• The potential for land degradation to exacerbate climate change, and land restoration to help both mitigation and adaptation;

• The linkages between land degradation and restoration and social, economic and political processes in far-off places; and

• Interactions among land degradation, poverty, climate change, and the risk of conflict and of involuntary migration.

Environmental and Economic Sense

The report found that higher employment and other benefits of land restoration often exceed by far the costs involved.  On average, the benefits of restoration are 10 times higher than the costs (estimated across nine different biomes), and, for regions like Asia and Africa, the cost of inaction in the face of land degradation is at least three times higher than the cost of action.

"Fully deploying the toolbox of proven ways to stop and reverse land degradation is not only vital to ensure food security, reduce climate change and protect biodiversity," said Dr. Montanarella, "It's also economically prudent and increasingly urgent."

Echoing this message, Sir Robert Watson, said: "Of the many valuable messages in the report, this ranks among the most important: implementing the right actions to combat land degradation can transform the lives of millions of people across the planet, but this will become more difficult and more costly the longer we take to act." 

Weather Apart: romantic moments under siege

Long-term climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of extreme weather and climate events.

In Ghana, some regions have unexpectedly experienced incessant downpour in the month of March. Yet heatwaves abound throughout the country.

Heavy rains and heatwaves are among hazards faced by the ever-growing global population.

With urbanization and the spread of megacities, communities are exposed and vulnerable.

And people get worried.

In a WhatsApp group discussion, a lady quizzed: “Why does it rain only at night these days?”

Her question attracted a quick explanation in meteorology and climatology that “it rains mostly in the night because air is generally cooler at night, and cool air holds less moisture than warm air resulting in rainfall”.

But a socio-emotional explanation of the weather trend was sought after than the scientific account – the questioner was much worried at the lonely cold nights she has had to bear as a spinster.

And the sensually sexual reactions to the lady’s question were as intriguing as the unexpected changes in the weather condition.

“For smooth facilitation of reproduction,” one retorted in response to the question.

Another member on the platform also stated that “it is good for those of us who can’t afford air conditioning and its attendant electricity bills to enjoy cool weather”.

The group chat exposed the comfort and discomfort of extreme increases in environmental temperature.

Hot Discomforting Breeze

Barely a fortnight before the rains set in, many a family suffered heat waves day and night.

Social media had been agog with a circular cautioning an unbearable heat during daytime and at night.

“This is as a result of heat waves stemming from the emission of greenhouse gases. Experts have warned us to prepare for more hot days and warm nights. This preparation will require smart adaptation strategies and engaging in climate resilient practices to cope with the damage that has been done,” said the unknown author of the circular.

It was therefore welcoming when the rains arrived after a long dry spell of heatwaves that cut deep into the skin.

Kojo and her partner enjoyed a soothing night sleep after an evening’s downpour.

“Now I can put my legs on my wife,” he exclaimed.

Apparently, intimacy between the couple had been strained by the heat waves. The two could hardly stay in bed at night; their romantic intimacy of cuddling suffered in the hands of discomforting night sweat under the hot breeze.

“It gets irritating to go skin-to-skin when you and your partner are already drowning in sweat. Even late night cold showers don’t help matters,” said Kojo. “How can you be on heat when you’re already on fire?”

Persistent extreme weather events

As soothing as it may have been, the first rains in the year 2018 left Ghana’s capital city flooded.

Up north in Tamale, the heat waves remained unbearable even before Midday.

New research by scientists at Stanford University predicts extreme weather events are set to occur more frequently, even if the central goals of the Paris Climate Change Agreement to limit the global temperatures rise to well under 2°C is met.

The researchers analyzed the likelihood of warm, dry, and excessively rainy periods in the coming years, all of which are already exacerbated by rising global temperatures and sea levels.

Weather-ready, climate-smart is the theme of World Meteorological Day 2018. This reflects one of the top priorities of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) – to protect lives, livelihoods and property from the risks related to weather, climate and water events.

The Organization has noted that “now more than ever, we need to be weather-ready, climate-smart and water-wise” as climate services can inform decisions on both climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Certainly, the warm, dry periods will be causing havoc to romantic relationships as the excessive rainy periods break communities apart.

Adaptation to the inevitable impacts of climate change will doubtless become increasingly important over the coming years.

Story by Kofi Adu Domfeh

Climate Change could force over 140million to migrate within countries

The worsening impacts of climate change in three densely populated regions of the world could see over 140 million people move within their countries’ borders by 2050, creating a looming human crisis and threatening the development process, a new World Bank Group report finds.

But with concerted action – including global efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions and robust development planning at the country level – this worst-case scenario of over 140m could be dramatically reduced, by as much as 80 percent, or more than 100 million people.

The report, Groundswell – Preparing for Internal Climate Migration, is the first and most comprehensive study of its kind to focus on the nexus between slow-onset climate change impacts, internal migration patterns and, development in three developing regions of the world: Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America.

It finds that unless urgent climate and development action is taken globally and nationally, these three regions together could be dealing with tens of millions of internal climate migrants by 2050. These are people forced to move from increasingly non-viable areas of their countries due to growing problems like water scarcity, crop failure, sea-level rise and storm surges.

These “climate migrants” would be additional to the millions of people already moving within their countries for economic, social, political or other reasons, the report warns.

World Bank Chief Executive Officer Kristalina Georgieva said the new research provides a wake-up call to countries and development institutions.

“We have a small window now, before the effects of climate change deepen, to prepare the ground for this new reality,” Georgieva said. “Steps cities take to cope with the upward trend of arrivals from rural areas and to improve opportunities for education, training and jobs will pay long-term dividends. It’s also important to help people make good decisions about whether to stay where they are or move to new locations where they are less vulnerable.”

The research team, led by World Bank Lead Environmental Specialist Kanta Kumari Rigaud and including researchers and modelers from CIESIN Columbia University, CUNY Institute of Demographic Research, and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research - applied a multi-dimensional modeling approach to estimate the potential scale of internal climate migration across the three regions.

They looked at three potential climate change and development scenarios, comparing the most “pessimistic” (high greenhouse gas emissions and unequal development paths), to “climate friendly” and “more inclusive development” scenarios in which climate and national development action increases in line with the challenge. Across each scenario, they applied demographic, socioeconomic and climate impact data at a 14-square kilometer grid-cell level to model likely shifts in population within countries.

This approach identified major “hotspots” of climate in- and out-migration - areas from which people are expected to move and urban, peri-urban and rural areas to which people will try to move to build new lives and livelihoods.

“Without the right planning and support, people migrating from rural areas into cities could be facing new and even more dangerous risks,” said the report’s team lead Kanta Kumari Rigaud. “We could see increased tensions and conflict as a result of pressure on scarce resources. But that doesn’t have to be the future. While internal climate migration is becoming a reality, it won’t be a crisis if we plan for it now.”

The report recommends key actions nationally and globally, including:

• Cutting global greenhouse gas emissions to reduce climate pressure on people and livelihoods, and to reduce the overall scale of climate migration;

• Transforming development planning to factor in the entire cycle of climate migration (before, during and after migration); and

• Investing in data and analysis to improve understanding of internal climate migration trends and trajectories at the country level.

FoodAfrica trains 20,000 farmers in sustainable farming practices

The FoodAfrica Programme has empowered 20,000 farmers in Benin, Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, Senegal and Uganda to improve the security and quality of their food supply.

In addition to those farmers and their communities, it is estimated that the programme has also had an impact on the lives of over 200,000 people.

“FoodAfrica has been an extremely interesting and rewarding programme,” said Mila Sell, a senior scientist at the Natural Resources Institute Finland. “We have worked directly with people at different levels, from academics, policy makers, through to farmers, and they’ve given us immediate feedback. Through collaboration with these excellent partners, we have witnessed encouraging results. This initiative has definitely increased their knowledge and abilities on sustainable production of healthy and safe food”. 

She however acknowledged there is still a lot to be done to reach the Zero Hunger Sustainable Development Goal in Africa.

Funded by the Government of Finland, the FoodAfrica Programme, which works from solid research to effective action, has enhanced sustainable food production, food safety and nutrition, and market access and agricultural extension.

The research component of the programme has seen the production of 300 publications and training materials targeting farmers, agricultural extension workers, academia and policy makers.

The programme has also enabled 31 people from the six countries to obtain Masters and PhD degrees, highlighting the importance of building national capacity to ensure sustainability of food security.

Among several other activities, the research included learning how to reduce the risk of aflatoxins in crops and milk, increase the profitability of dairy production through improved management and create new methods to improve soil properties. Through improved post-harvest methods, including drying, and using traditional fermenting methods, farmers reduced aflatoxin contamination by 80%. Researchers mapped micronutrients in soils, providing information to policy makers and recommendations for farmers on how to improve the quality of their soils.

“An important achievement of the programme’s work on innovative extension approaches was engaging volunteer farmer trainers to help increase the reach and sustainability of agricultural extension services,” said Dr Steven Franzel, an agricultural economist at the World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF). “As a result, 85 organizations across four countries adopted the volunteer farmer trainer approach, or modified the approach they were using, in part due to exposure to our research. These organizations’ volunteer farmer trainers, in turn, work with several hundred thousand farmers.”

The key results of the Food Africa Programme are available online at www.luke.fi/FoodAfricaResults

Ghana’s 2018 Economic Outlook Positive but Challenges Remain

Ghana’s macroeconomic performance improved in 2017 after a difficult 2016. The country’s economy expanded for the fifth successive quarter in September 2017, at a rate almost double that of 2016, according to a World Bank report.

The 3^rd edition of the Ghana Economic Update, which focuses on agriculture as the engine of growth and jobs creation, notes that the service sector bounced back, and the fiscal consolidation is paying off. The inflation rate is also down to close of 10 percent.

“The macroeconomic outlook was largely positive based on the 2017 performance.  GDP growth for 2017 is estimated to have almost doubled from the 3.7 percent in 2016, and is expected to stay at that elevated level through 2018,” said Henry Kerali, World Bank Country Director for Ghana.

The external position has improved as the trade balance has shifted to a surplus. Ghana has made good progress in macro-stabilization in 2017, but it needs to sustain the fiscal consolidation efforts. According to the report, inflation is likely to fall within or be close to the Bank of Ghana’s medium-term target range of 6-10 percent in 2018. Based on the 2017 trends, and sustained fiscal consolidation, the report expects that the fiscal deficit could fall within the Government’s target of below 5 percent of GDP from 2018 onwards.  To sustain the fiscal consolidation efforts, two areas are particularly important over the medium-term—domestic resource mobilization and expenditure controls. 

Despite the positive outlook, challenges remain, including further containing inflation and strengthening and deepening the financial sector to lower interest rates. Ghana’s economic performance over the medium term will, to a large extent, depend on the success of the economic stabilization program.

The report recommends that the Government sustain the fiscal consolidation efforts. Improvements in domestic revenue mobilization and more forward-looking expenditure planning will be key. But fiscal consolidation will only be sustainable when social and economic activities can thrive in an expanding and increasingly diverse economy. Ghana is also likely to face higher financing costs in both the domestic and external markets in the context of a strong U.S. dollar and rising global bond yields.

“The country’s heavy reliance on primary commodities, including cocoa, gold, and oil—all prone to volatility in international commodity prices—create uncertainty about its actual future paths for growth, inflation, export receipts, and domestic revenue,” said Michael Geiger, Senior Economist and co-author of the report.

The report highlights that with the right reforms, agriculture has the potential to be one of the leading sectors for a more diverse economy and can be transformed to be an engine of growth and job creation. Agriculture has a very large multiplier effect on employment, creating over 750 jobs for every additional $1million of output. However, as the importance of the extractive sector has risen, it appears agriculture sector growth has slowed.

The report therefore recommends three policy options to strengthen the agriculture sector:

• Improving the quality and effectiveness of public expenditure in agriculture would be important in the context of limited fiscal space;
• Improving the environment for agriculture businesses is key to adding value to the existing production and for jobs creation; and

• Fixing challenges in the cocoa sector given the large size of the cocoa economy.

“There is need to channel public resources into research to increase the use of technology, invest in irrigation infrastructure to increase productivity and mitigate the potential adverse effects of climate change, and leverage increased private sector investment in agriculture,” said Hardwick Tchale, Senior Agric Economist and co-author.

Ghana takes steps to reduce use of refrigerants that affect global warming

In a bid to help reduce the use of refrigerants, Ghana’s Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is establishing Refrigeration Centres of Excellence in parts of the country.

Two centres are already up and running in Kumasi and Takoradi to serve the northern and southern sectors respectively. A third national centre will be commissioned in the capital city, Accra.

Refrigerants are substances used in a cooling mechanism, such as an air conditioner or refrigerator, as the heat carrier which changes from gas to liquid and the back to gas in the refrigeration cycle.

The chemical is known to contribute to the greenhouse gas effect, which adversely affect the ozone layer, global climate and human health.

“The EPA has a responsibility to ensure the reduction in the use of refrigerants in order to avert ozone depletion and global warming,” said the Executive Director of EPA, Peter Abum Sarkodie. “By so doing, we will be helping to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal 7 and 13 on affordable and clean energy, and climate change action, respectively.

He added that the initiative will also enable the Agency “meet the obligations of the Montreal Protocol and its amendments; reduce energy demands, and help citizens to avoid premature demobilization of their equipment”.

The refrigerant dynamics

Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are synthetic substances used as refrigerants.

Following the discovery that some of these chemical compounds may be harmful to the environment, they are being replaced with more environmentally-friendly alternatives.

Production of new stocks of Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) ceased in 1994. The slightly less ozone damaging Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) will phase out completely by 2020.

With no chlorine in the mix, Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) is safer for the environment. Air conditioners that run on these are more efficient, offer better air quality, increase comfort and improve reliability.

Ghana ready for alternative refrigerants

Ghana’s EPA says the country is ready and equipped to adopt alternative refrigerants, which include hydrocarbons and ammonia.

The refrigeration centres of excellence, situated in three technical educational institutes, will impart the code of good refrigeration practices to both students and practitioners in the formal and informal sectors.

The goal is to ensure the men and women who will install, service, repair and dismantle refrigerators and air-conditioning equipment are at the heart of the phase-out of HCFCs, and the introduction of energy-efficient and low global warming potential initiatives.

“They need to be trained to cope with the specific properties of alternative refrigerants such as flammability, toxicity and high working pressures. They also need to understand the pros and cons of the different refrigerants and equipment that use them,” said Mr. Abum Sarkodie.

The EPA is also pursuing a certification regime for technicians to ensure standards are upheld to make life more comfortable.

By Kofi Adu Domfeh