The State of the Climate in Africa 2019 report, a multi-agency publication
coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), provides a snapshot
of current and future climate trends and associated impacts on the economy and
sensitive sectors like agriculture. It highlights lessons for climate action in
Africa and identifies pathways for addressing critical gaps and
challenges.
The report is being released on 26
October at a ministerial-level launch to highlight the urgency
of climate action in Africa and the current state of capacity. The risks are
becoming more severe.
“Climate change is having a growing impact on the African continent,
hitting the most vulnerable hardest, and contributing to food insecurity,
population displacement and stress on water resources. “In recent months we
have seen devastating floods, an invasion of desert locusts and now face the
looming spectre of drought because of a La Niña event. The human and economic
toll has been aggravated by the COVID-19 pandemic,” said WMO Secretary-General
Petteri Taalas.
Rising temperatures and sea levels
The year 2019 was among the three warmest years on record for the
continent. That trend is expected to continue. African temperatures in recent
decades have been warming at a rate
comparable to that of most other continents, and thus somewhat faster than
global mean surface temperature.
The latest decadal predictions, covering the five-year period from 2020 to
2024, shows continued warming and decreasing rainfall especially over North and
Southern Africa, and increased rainfall over the Sahel.
Extensive areas of Africa will exceed 2 °C of warming above pre-industrial
levels by the last two decades of this century under medium scenarios as
reported in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment
Report. Much of Africa has already warmed by more than 1 °C since 1901, with an
increase in heatwaves and hot days. A reduction in precipitation is likely over
North Africa and the south-western parts of South Africa by the end of the
century, according to the IPCC.
“Science-based climate information is the foundation of resilience
building, a cornerstone of climate change adaptation, as well as an oasis for
sustainable livelihoods and development. The State of Climate Report for Africa
has, therefore, a critical role to play in this respect, including in informing
our actions for achieving the goals of the Africa Agenda 2063,” said H.E.
Josefa Leonel Correia Sacko, Commissioner for Rural Economy and Agriculture of
the African Union Commission.
Rising sea levels and coastal erosion
There is significant regional variability in sea-level trends
around Africa. Sea-level increase reached 5 mm per year in several oceanic
areas surrounding the continent and exceeded 5 mm per year in the south-western
Indian Ocean from Madagascar eastward towards and beyond Mauritius. This is
more than the average global sea-level rise of 3–4 mm per year.
Coastal degradation and erosion is also a major challenge, especially in West
Africa. About 56% of the coastlines in Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal and Togo
are eroding and this is expected to worsen in the future. Sea level rise is
currently not the dominant contributor but is expected to combine with other
factors in future to exacerbate the negative consequences of environmental
changes.
Extreme events
The report documents high-impact events in 2019. Tropical Cyclone
Idai was among the most destructive tropical cyclones ever recorded in the
southern hemisphere, resulting in hundreds of casualties and hundreds of
thousands of displaced.
Southern Africa suffered extensive drought in 2019. In contrast, the Greater
Horn of Africa shifted from very dry conditions in 2018 and most of 2019 to
floods and landslides associated with heavy rainfall in late 2019. Flooding
also affected the Sahel and surrounding areas from May to October 2019.
Food security impacts
In the drought-prone sub-Saharan African countries, the number of
undernourished people has increased by 45.6% since 2012 according to the Food
and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
Agriculture is the backbone of Africa’s economy and accounts for the majority
of livelihoods across the continent. Africa is therefore an exposure and
vulnerability “hot spot” for climate variability and change impacts.
IPCC projections suggest that warming scenarios risk having
devastating effects on crop production and food security.
Key risks to agriculture include reduced crop productivity
associated with heat and drought stress and increased pest damage, disease
damage and flood impacts on food system infrastructure, resulting in serious
adverse effects on food security and on livelihoods at the regional, national
and individual household levels.
By the middle of this century, major cereal crops grown across
Africa will be adversely impacted, albeit with regional variability and
differences between crops.
Under the worst case climate change scenario, a reduction in mean
yield of 13% is projected in West and Central Africa, 11% in North Africa, and
8% in East and Southern Africa. Millet and sorghum have been found to be the
most promising crops, with a yield loss by 2050 of just 5% and 8%,
respectively, due to their greater resilience to heat-stress conditions, while
rice and wheat are expected to be the most affected crops with a yield loss by
2050 of 12% and 21%, respectively.
Health impacts
Increases in temperature and changes in rainfall patterns also
significantly affect population health across Africa. Warmer temperatures and
higher rainfall increase habitat suitability for biting insects and the
transmission of vector-borne diseases such as dengue fever, malaria and yellow
fever.
In addition, new diseases are emerging in regions where they were previously
not present. In 2017, an estimated 93% of global malaria deaths occurred in
Africa. Malaria epidemics often occur after periods of unusually heavy
rainfall. In addition, warming in the East African highlands is allowing
malaria-carrying mosquitoes to survive at higher altitudes.
Economic impacts
According to the International Monetary Fund, adverse consequences
of climate change are concentrated in regions with relatively hot climates,
where a disproportionately large number of low-income countries are
located.
The African Climate Policy Centre projects that the Gross Domestic
Product in the five African subregions would suffer significant decrease as a
result of a global temperature increase. For scenarios ranging from a 1 °C to a
4 °C increase in global temperatures relative to pre-industrial levels, the
continent’s overall GDP is expected to decrease by 2.25% to 12.12%. West,
Central and East Africa exhibit a higher adverse impact than Southern and North
Africa.
“The limited uptake and use of climate information services in development
planning and practice in Africa is due in part to the paucity of reliable and
timely climate information. This report, focusing on Africa, will go a long way
towards addressing this gap. The contribution of the Economic Commission for
Africa to the production of this report, through the African Climate Policy
Centre, seeks to highlight the nexus between climate change and development,
and to emphasise that building forward better from the Covid-19 pandemic
requires a development approach that is green, sustainable and climate
resilient, informed by the best available science. The participation of
multiple institutions and agencies in producing the report reinforces our
principles and approaches of working as one,” said H.E. Vera Songwe, Executive
Secretary of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa.
Climate Action
Africa’s Agenda 2063, which was concluded in 2013, recognizes
climate change as a major challenge for the continent’s development.
Since 2015, the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris
Agreement have become the main instrument for guiding policy responses to climate
change. Fifty-two (52) African countries have submitted their first NDCs and
are now in the process of sub- mitting revised NDCs in 2020.
Africa and the small island developing States are the regions facing the
largest capacity gaps with regard to climate services. Africa also has the
least developed land-based observation network of all continents.
Africa has made great efforts in driving the global climate agenda. This is
demonstrated by the very high levels of ratification of the Paris Agreement –
over 90%. Many African nations have committed to transitioning to green energy
within a relatively short time frame. Clean energy and agriculture are, for
example, prioritized in over 70% of African NDCs. This ambition needs to be an
integral part of setting the economic development priorities of the
continent.
One promising approach throughout the continent to reducing climate related
risks and extreme event impacts has been to reduce poverty by promoting
socioeconomic growth, in particular in the agricultural sector. In this sector,
which employs 60% of Africa’s population, value-addition techniques using
efficient and clean energy sources are reported to be capable of reducing
poverty two to four times faster than growth in any other sector.
Solar-powered, efficient micro-irrigation, for example, is increasing
farm-level incomes by five to 10 times, improving yields by up to 300% and
reducing water usage by up to 90% while at the same time offsetting carbon
emissions by generating up to 250 kW of clean energy.
Women constitute a large percentage of the world’s poor, and about half of the
women in the world are active in agriculture – in developing countries, this
figure is 60%, and in low-income, food-deficit countries, 70%. Reducing poverty
by means of growth in Africa’s agricultural sector is therefore of particular
benefit to women. It also may be the case that in some instances, women do not
have access to weather and climate services; it is important that all
individuals be provided with access to these services in order to enhance their
individual resilience and adaptive capacity.
