Climate change made the dangerous humid heatwave in West Africa 10 times more likely

Human-caused climate change made the humid heatwave in southern West Africa during February ten times more likely, according to rapid analysis by an international team of leading climate scientists from the World Weather Attribution group.

 

The study also found that if humans do not rapidly move away from fossil fuels, causing global warming to rise to 2°C above preindustrial levels, West Africa will experience similar heatwaves about once every two years.

 

Developing heat action plans will help protect vulnerable people from dangerous heatwaves in West Africa, the researchers say.

 

February this year was the hottest February on record globally and the ninth consecutive month in a row that a hottest month record was broken.

 

West Africa was hit by an unusually intense humid heatwave with temperatures not normally seen until March or April. The most severe heat occurred from February 11-15 with temperatures above 40°C.

 

In Nigeria, doctors reported an increase in patients presenting for heat-related illness, people complained of poor sleep due to hot nights and the national meteorological agency issued several warnings about the heat.

 

“It is clear climate change is bringing more and more dangerously hot days to West Africa. With every fraction of a degree of global warming, heatwaves like the one we experienced in February in West Africa will become even hotter,” said Wasiu Adeniyi Ibrahim, Head, Central Forecast Office, NiMet, Abuja, Nigeria.

 

In Ghana, the national meteorological agency also warned people to prepare for dangerous temperatures.

 

The heat occurred during the finals of the Africa Cup of Nations football tournament in Côte d'Ivoire. Due to the hot and humid conditions, additional ‘cooling breaks’ were taken during the matches so players could rehydrate.

 

Climate change, caused by burning fossil fuels like oil, gas and coal, and deforestation, has made heatwaves more frequent, longer and hotter around the world. To quantify the effect of climate change on the hot and humid temperatures in West Africa, scientists analysed observed weather data and climate models to compare how the event has changed between today’s climate, with approximately 1.2°C of global warming, and the cooler pre-industrial climate, using peer-reviewed methods.

 

Maja Vahlberg, Risk Consultant at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, expects countries across Africa, and the world, to prepare for heat.

 

“Many people do not appreciate the dangers of heat – unlike storms, fires or droughts, heatwaves don’t leave an evident trail of destruction. However, heatwaves are ‘silent killers.’ They can be incredibly deadly for the elderly, people with existing health conditions and outdoor workers.

 

“Humidity makes a massive difference to the human experience of heat. While the average air temperature across West Africa during mid-February was about 36°C, the humidity meant it would have felt like 50°C.

 

The Heat Index

 

The analysis looked at the maximum five-day heat index in a region of southern West Africa where the heat was most extreme, including Nigeria, Benin, Togo, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Liberia, Sierra Leone, and small parts of Guinea and Cameroon.

 

The heat index, also known as apparent temperature, is a measure that combines temperature and humidity to reflect how heat feels to the human body because higher levels of humidity make it harder for the humans to cool down. While the average air temperature in West Africa was above 36°C the heat index for the same period was about 50°C, reflecting how a combination of humidity and high temperatures caused dangerous conditions.

 

The researchers found that climate change made the heatwave as measured by the heat index about 4°C hotter and ten times more likely. Before humans started burning fossil fuels, similar heatwaves used to be rare events, occurring less than once every 100 years. However, in today’s climate, with 1.2°C of warming, similar humid heatwaves occur about once every 10 years.

 

If the world does not move away from fossil fuels and rapidly reduce emissions to net zero, West Africa will experience even hotter and more frequent humid heatwaves. If global warming reaches 2°C, as is expected to occur in the 2040s or 2050s unless emissions are rapidly halted, similar events will occur about once every two years and will become a further

1.2-3.4°C hotter.

 

Although the heatwave potentially affected millions across the nine countries, there were few heat-related impacts reported by the media and government organisations which reflects the need to improve awareness of dangerous heat and the detection of heat impacts.

 

While meteorological organisations in Nigeria and Ghana did provide warnings about the heat, many of the other countries included in the analysis have not carried out planning for dangerous heat, including introducing early warning for dangerous heat. In addition, none of the countries have developed a heat action plan that are extremely effective at saving lives during periods of dangerous heat.

 

“Africa has contributed a tiny fraction of global greenhouse gas emissions, but is the most vulnerable continent to the impacts of climate change,” noted Sjoukje Philip, Researcher at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute.

 

“The impacts of some extreme weather events are very clear in Africa. But for heatwaves, we don’t have a good sense of how people are being affected. A low level of climate science and reporting on heat impacts can make it difficult for African governments to highlight ongoing climate impacts,” he said.

 

Major investment is needed in Africa to build resilience to dangerous heat. The UN has estimated that the cost of adaptation for developing countries is between US$215-387 billion per year this decade.

 

However, rich countries haven’t yet met the financial promises they have made to help developing countries become more resilient to the growing risks of climate change. In addition, these commitments fall drastically short of the finance required – in 2021, the global community delivered just US$21 billion to help developing countries adapt to climate change.

 

The study was conducted by 17 researchers as part of the World Weather Attribution group, including scientists from universities, organisations and meteorological agencies in Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Switzerland, Sweden, South Africa, The Netherlands, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States.

 

By Kofi Adu Domfeh

International Day of Forests: Urgent call for Ghana to repeal law hindering innovative forest management

The government of Ghana has been asked to urgently repeal the country’s Environmental Protection Regulation, LI 2462, which has been described as counter-productive to innovative solutions to managing forest reserves.

The legislative instrument, in its current form and intent, means no forest reserve in Ghana is exempted from mining if deemed to be in the interest of the state as determined by the President.

“This implies that, even Ghana’s most sensitive forest areas protected by Acts of Parliament and international conventions that Ghana has signed onto, can no longer be deemed secured,” said a statement by Tropenbos Ghana in commemoration of International Day of Forests.

In the spirit of this year’s theme “Forests and innovation: New Solutions for a Better World”, there is a call on governments, forest resource managers, and other state and non-state actors to initiate, and ensure effective implementation of innovative actions in order to optimally realize forests’ potentials and associated benefits in a sustainable manner.  

The environmental research organization is also demanding the immediate reversal of the directive from the Minister of Lands and Natural Resources to the Forestry Commission to grant permits to timber harvesting companies to log in Globally Significant Biodiversity Areas (GSBAs).

“These forest reserves host endangered species and as such, must be protected,” the statement emphasized.

For most developing countries in the tropics, forests and associated resources are deemed the single most important resource base that propels sustainable development, and general wellbeing of the masses.

According to Project Manager of Tropenbos Ghana, Boakye Twumasi Ankra, this can be realized when the right policies, regulations and practices are initiated, instituted, and effectively enforced. 

He expects the Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources to be transparent, and accountable to Ghanaians on degazetted portions of Achimota forest reserve.

“Since the degazetting, there has been limited public engagement on actions that are being taken to ensure the sustainable management of the forest. Amidst reported instance of illegal entry, it is our strong conviction that, the MLNR should make public the procedure for degazetting portions of the forest, allocations that are being or will be made, beneficiaries, management, and investment practices particularly in relation to surrounding ecosystem,” said the statement. 

Wildlife Resources Management Bill

There is also a call for the President to as a matter of urgency give assent to the Wildlife Resources Management Bill, upon receipt, which among other things consolidates laws related to wildlife and protected areas.

Passed by Parliament on July 28, 2023, the bill is yet to have Presidential assent; delaying its enforcement. 

“This holds the potential to cause no action on key regulatory propositions and interventions that are outlined in the bill. It is therefore important for parliament to expedite action on all processes that are needed to be undertaken prior to submission to the office of the president for his assent,” said Tropenbos.

There are also recommendations for the MLNR and the Forestry Commission to improve adoption of technology and internet-based solutions into forest management.

By Kofi Adu Domfeh 

 

Ghana hosts Climate Change Summit to call for urgent action to safeguard Africa’s future

Climate change is threatening the long-term survival of rural African communities, leaving them unable to grow essential crops and unable to access healthcare due to extreme heat or rainfall.

Researchers from the University of Southampton in the UK and the University for Development Studies in Ghana have found that communities report how this situation has significantly worsened in the last five years. They are calling for urgent intervention to secure their health and future.

The University of Southampton, Ghana Ministry of Health and PACKS Africa are co-hosting a summit in Accra, Ghana, on Tuesday 12 March to discuss next steps.

The research team surveyed hundreds of people in the rural Mion district, in northern Ghana – with every person reporting some level of food insecurity, a lack of access to, or availability of, food. This is often caused by loss of crops or livestock, soil infertility, unpredictable seasonal changes, and pest or disease outbreaks.

The researchers defined food insecurity for over a quarter of respondents as ‘severe’.
Most people had also, on at least one occasion in the last year, been unable to reach their local health facility due to extreme weather conditions.

Jess Boxall, Research Fellow at the University of Southampton, led the study. She said: “The results of our research are concerning, with entire communities reporting fears for their future food security. Our research was conducted in rural northern Ghana, but it’s extremely likely the findings are applicable to other Ghanaian communities – and across the African continent. Urgent short-term and long-term interventions are needed to give these communities a fighting chance.”

The research group has produced recommendations to policymakers, including:

• food aid programmes providing varied food (not just cereal products, as are currently provided) and storage solutions to protect food aid from flooding

• improving the transport infrastructure

• government intervention to diversify crops

• ensure ongoing health system revisions in Ghana consider access to health facilities

• education on climate change and climate smart agriculture practices.
The threat to the availability of varied food leads to malnutrition, leading to additional problems.

Dr Michael Head, Senior Research Fellow in Global Health at the University of Southampton, explained: “Malnutrition increases the risk of infection, and with mosquito-related diseases such as malaria and yellow fever both present in Ghana and likely to get worse with climate change, an adequate diet is vital to support the immune system and improve immune response to vaccination.”

Dr Victor Mogre, Associate Professor at the University for Development Studies in Ghana and Visiting Academic at the University of Southampton, said: “In northern Ghana, where food insecurity is already severe, climate change worsens the situation by increasing the likelihood that vulnerable populations, including children, pregnant women, and lactating mothers, will become malnourished.

"This can result in a cycle of malnutrition that spans generations, diminishes productivity, and yields unfavourable economic consequences. Integral to this strategy should be the promotion of climate-smart agriculture awareness among subsistence farmers and the dissemination of nutrition education to the general public regarding the importance of consuming adequate, diversified diets, particularly among vulnerable groups.”

Climate change summit

The researchers are holding a live-streamed summit – Addressing Climate Change and Health – in Accra, Ghana, on Tuesday 12 March 2024.

The event will bring together ministers, charities, academics, industry, health service providers and NGOs to raise awareness of the urgency of the climate change impact on West Africa.

Keynote speakers will include Dr Wisdom Atiwoto, from the Ghana Ministry of Health, and the summit will be chaired by Professor Lydia Aziato, Vice Chancellor of Ghana’s University for Health and Allied Sciences.